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Depreciation curve on bikes

87kawzl Jul 19, 2018

  1. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    I've been looking at bikes lately, not to replace the ZL1K as that would still be my antique commuter. this bike will be expected to carry me to my retirement age in 10-15 years. Floor boards, luggage space and comfortable seating for 2 would allow long weekend outings further distances away. Toting a pop up tent may even be an option, just thinking out loud here.

    I am looking at R1200R (I'm not that old yet!), Triumph Rocket tour, Guzzi cali 1400 Tour, HD electra or road glide ultra or maybe a wing. Something along those lines. I like the idea of convert ability with the luggage.

    This brings me to how to get the best value when buying. I will probably keep it for many years like everything else I buy. Would I be better off with a 2yo/18k mi or 4yo/6k mile bike? I like the idea of 1/2 the price of new and NADA puts a 2015 MG Cali tour there, that's after only 3 years of enjoyment on a $18500 bike! I see that no one wants to pay anything for an old tourer so brand new or 3yo now will still mean a bike worth squat when I'm done with it.

    Are there any sources for where the depreciation curve flattens out on bikes? I think I hit it right when I bought the ZL at $3500 25 yrs ago. Any advice on models that may suit my wants/needs? It seems bmw don't drop as fast as they age.
     
  2. GaryD

    GaryD Active Member

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    15-20 years is when the price appears to strengthen.

    Around 10 years and it's seen as old news but if in good nick and low milage some still try to ask money for them. 10-20years...unless it was top dog then they are sold simply as 'transport'. After that if they become 'in' ( CX500!!!!), then you/they are paying for the rose coloured specs.
     
  3. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    Here "Older " bikes are "Sky rocketing" in value and in general "Fuel injected, ECU brained", behemoths are falling in price to the extent that £2-4,500, will buy you a relatively newish machine. "Newish" meaning 5 years past the Millennium! At the IOM people were talking about the problems they were having with newly manufactured machines as opposed to earlier incarnations!

    Punters are worried that too much "Tech2 means more to go wrong and replacement components are extremely highly priced.

    Honda Valkyrie, false neutrals;
    Big Kawasaki's component quality issues;
    Triumphs early corrosion...
    Harley's....Hot engine issues!
     
  4. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    Using NADA values:
    2013 road glide ultra is 58% of new
    2014 guzzi cali tour is 46% of new
    2014 R1200R is 62% of new

    I really wouldn't mind picking one up in the 20k mile range if the price is right. Those types of owners want the new model and use them.

    There are lots of people that buy them as a fashion statement and don't use them, annual insurance, registration, inspection while probably having a payment, things start adding up and they want to get out from under them cause they figure they don't use them.

    I've got a line on a 15 road glide with low miles for a good price, he bought a vette because he likes 4 wheels better. The thing about that bike is it is denim black and I'm not to into that flat black look. I could get over it for the right price though.
     
  5. markus56

    markus56 ZL-OA Co-owner Staff Member Administrator Super Moderator Supporting Member

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    With all the issues Harleys have had over the last several years, you couldn't give me one of the damned things. I'll just stick to my old Kaws. They're pretty reliable when sorted and kept up with on the maintenance.
     
  6. ZLrider

    ZLrider Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if bikes are much different than cars. They go down dramatically for 2 or 3 years, then continue to fall. After that it's probably more a matter of condition than age, although even in top shape, I'd expect the prices to not bottom out for 10 years or so. To most people I know, a 4 cyl Jap bike is a 4 cyl Jap bike. Make, model, year doesn't matter. They are looking for $1000-1500 bike and will just select something they like the looks of.

    I suspect any old 2 wheeler in good to very good condition will always bring 1-2k unless it is something special, like a Z1 or and early CB750. One thing we don't have to contend with much with bikes is collectors. I know dozens of guys who have a modest collection of old cars, but most just have one bike in the garage.

    One interesting trend that has risen over the last few years that has buoyed prices is the rat bike/cafe racer movement. I've seen totally crap bikes made to be worth $3k or more by hacking them to pieces and replacing the stock seat with a board covered with foam and vinyl. I don't get it, but some like it. When I was a kid, before the crotch rocket days, there were also cafe racers around, but they were nothing like the current crop.
     
  7. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    WE have lots of "Collectors" here in the UK!
     
  8. ZLrider

    ZLrider Well-Known Member

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    It's always seemed to me that bikes are thought of differently on your side of the pond, so not surprised you have some collectors. You guys use bikes for actual transportation. At least in my little corner of the world they are a toy, a summer toy. Most see very little use and even though I have and many others have at times depended on two wheels for getting around, they are still basically a weekend diversion. Oddly most in my town own Harleys and I'm talking a huge percentage of the locals having an HD in the garage.

    For many years you'd hardly ever see any other make of bike on the road, but with the gas surging to record highs a few years ago it seems to have fueled a renewed interest. Now I'm seeing about one Jap bike a week. 10 years a go I'd be lucky to see one a year. In fact I used to joke that I had the only non-Harley in town.

    I should correct my previous statement. I do know a few guys who have several Harleys, so I guess you could say they are collectors, but nobody seems very interested in anything else and prices for Jap bikes are quite low in general. That's why I've been saying, it's far cheaper to buy a running complete bike than to restore one. Nothing against restoring old iron, it's a fun thing for sure. Just don't expect to get your money out of it or to flip it for a profit.
     
  9. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    I'm looking to get into a newer bike to use as a daily driver for 3 seasons and light touring (long weekends) on. I plan on using it that way for 10+ years. I don't want an old bike, have the ZL1, I want a new bike but want to avoid the steep part of the depreciation curve.

    It looks like BMWs and HD hold a higher % of their MSRP than Guzzi or triumph 3 years in.

    I think 3yrs old is about the sweet spot where the depreciation starts to flatten out. It's tough to find the deals on something that new, that is unless your a dealer and spanked someone on trade in.
     
  10. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    Here in the UK the bikes that are going up in value at the moment, excluding top price British iron, are pre ECU, non-Fuel injected, non ABS, models with simple brakes, carburettors and few electrical gizmo's, so U R looking at 70s, 80s and 90s Japanese and Italian stuff and some early harley davidson's have a following too! The reason is they R cheaper to fix and restore!

    In the US you imported more bikes than most places and more exotic models, so there should be a good choice around! Here CBX, Kawasaki 1,300s and of course the Z900 and Z1000 are popular, then the early CB750s and Suzuki GT750s, Z650s too. The 500cc class are also starting to emerge as candidates 4 restoration!
    As a % the ride to work class of transport has fallen dramatically. Again now, like U, its mostly toys 4 boys and girls!
     
  11. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    Trojan, I think you are missing my point. I want something newer and am looking to go used to avoid the first years where value drops by double digits of % msrp. Not looking for an investment, looking for transportation and understand that it comes with a cost. Just trying to figure where the sweet spot is for different bikes to try to determine what one I should jump on. I've been using KBB and doing the math to find value drops as they age, then comparing different bikes, it's kind of a PITA. I was hoping someone could lead me to a site or article where someone went through the exercise.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2018
  12. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    Yep! I understand what you were trying to do! I was just commenting that here the situation is reversed. Even newish ECU controlled, ABS, fuel injected bikes are plummeting in price, it isn't just about investment though, it is more about component replacement reliability and cost! Ur richer in the States!

    Not much help i know but never look at new machines and through technological overkill have no desire for one! But good luck with your choice and price!

    John!
     
  13. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    component replacement reliability and cost!
    Which I'm sure is the reason the guzzi drops faster, who wants to spend riding time waiting on parts.


    Ur richer in the States!
    As I look over my shoulder, can't be me! I'm almost 50 riding a bike for the past 25 years that was built the year I graduated high school. It's about choices, I chose to sacrifice spending early to fund my retirement that will hopefully happen someday. I'd have a collection like Leno if I were rich! I'm just looking for a good deal on a new ride to carry me till that retirement bike purchase.

    Good point tho, I will definitely look into reliability issues as I narrow down my list.:occasion14:
     
  14. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    I can't understand how a Country as big as yours, (King George 111, made a big mistake or a least his the idiots who were colonial representatives did, (1775-83), TBH we are taxed to death here and I can sympathise with the Colonists, .....quote" over the lack of American representation in Parliament, which was seen as a denial of their rights as Englishmen and often popularly focused on direct taxes levied by Parliament on the colonies without their consent, the colonists resisted the imposition of direct rule after the Boston Tea Party. Creating self-governing provinces, they circumvented the British ruling apparatus in each colony by 1774!" The French joined the War for their own reason and gain, the remake of "The last of the Mohican's with Daniel Day Lewis is a good film!), can be poor, except through the imposition of things like Agenda 21!

    Democracy is a scam, they lie then do what they want, to rise monies and taxes. There is an additional tax on my Car insurance, House Insurance, Fuel, Motorcycle insurance as well as being taxed on what I earn and what I spend, (VAT on all goods and services), but the two that really get me most is Inheritance tax after someone dies and Council tax which is becoming like a second mortgage!

    Parliament is morally corrupt, we now have 700 hangers paying themselves good monies, fiddled expenses and Pension benefits on the whole thing is a corrupt sham and a disaster for the country, The political class are indolent and parasitic on the rest of us!

    Look at your country rich in land and resources, you gotta say somethings fishy and something wrong out there!

    Triples are supposed to be good engines!
     
  15. GaryD

    GaryD Active Member

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    Look for something about the turn of the century. Prices should be rock bottom for them. Look at zzr1100 prices..I'm just waiting for the zzr1200 to drop a few hundred more.
     
  16. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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  17. Trojan441

    Trojan441 Active Member

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    The Early "K" series, " Flying bricks" are the best bikes BMW ever built, the only weakness is the electrical wiring looms have very thin wires!
     
  18. R. J.

    R. J. Senior Member

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    :hello:DFI bikes are fine until something goes wrong mostly at the 10 year mark. You will drop about $400 on just the fuel pump. I'd buy a Goldwing or Honda Valkyrie that wasn't fuel injected. As a bike gets older the price of the parts goes up. You can't even buy new fuel injectors for a 10 year old bike. New bikes are like new cars you have to take them to a Dealer when they need worked on at $110/hr.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2018
  19. 87kawzl

    87kawzl Senior Member

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    :roflmao: -no- on a goldwing from the last century. Besides, I've heard that those carbs are their own kind of special to deal with. ain't skeered of FI.

    I think I would like things like ABS, cruise, stability control, FI. :geek: Hell, the way people drive out there put on subaru eyesight and one of those airbag vests they sell.

    Seriously, I'm trying to get a late model to drive till it is old and I can get some time in retirement to tour around.
     
  20. R. J.

    R. J. Senior Member

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    :hello: To tell you the truth I haven't rode a new bike that I like. During Bikeweek Daytona I've rode them all one time or another. The CanAm Spyder is nice. I didn't care for them all that much until I rode one. At 25 K they can keep it. They really drop in value. You can pic up one that's 4 years old for around 10 K.
     

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